数据统计显示,受厄尔尼诺现象影响,巴西南部雨患频繁,催生了病虫害的发生发作,目前,已在巴西南部大豆产区发现的亚洲大豆锈病事件,数量为上…

大豆是巴西的重要的经济作物,南美洲地区更是全球最大的油籽出口地区。近年来,随着巴西农户逐渐掌握了病虫害防治技术,一旦病虫害出现发作苗头,农户可以快速采取反制措施,控制其发生和发展。

来自病虫害监测防治机构的消息显示,自6月份至今,监测到大豆真菌病害现象在巴西已发生73次之多,而其中大部分来自于潮湿的南方地区,里约格朗德、帕拉纳则最有代表性。而一年前,这一数据仅为43次。

厄尔尼诺导致巴西南部地区出现更多降雨,给病害发展提供了滋生的土壤。来自巴西某农业研究机构的植物病理学家claudiagodoy称,由于气候现象的影响,巴西南部地区将变得更加多雨潮湿,而北部地区则可能表现更为干燥。

气象机构称,本次厄尔尼诺事件将成为有记录以来最强的一次,而早在2009/10农作物生产季,厄尔尼诺就曾对巴西谷物收割造成过影响。

2015/16年度,巴西大豆生产水平或将达到1亿吨高位。大豆锈病在历年巴西大豆生产过程中也并不算罕见。本次大豆生产季初期,便传出大豆锈病事件的消息,而真正官方确认并公布的病害出现,始于今年9月份。一般来说,如果大豆锈病能够被及时控制,不会对产量造成严重影响,但需要及早将病害现象告知农户,以采取及时措施。

农业气象学家称,在整个大豆生产期内,大豆锈病可能保持较高的发作趋势,从2016年1月至4月,降水可能还将频繁发生,伴随整个大豆收获期,大豆生产还将面临威胁。

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the number of asian soybean rust fungus cases in brazil has nearly
doubled from the previous

year due to heavy rainfall in the south triggered by el nio, according
to industry data. from june until thursday, there have been 73
incidents of the fungus that attacks plants in

humid conditions, mostly in the southern states of rio grande do sul
and parana, according to

the public-private anti-fungus consortium that monitors the sector. a
year earlier, there were 43 cases of fungus at this time. “el nio
causes a higher average rainfall in the south, favoring rust
(fungus),” said claudia

godoy, a plant pathologist at agricultural research body embrapa soy,
referring to the

climate phenomenon that tends to bring rain to southern brazil and
drought to the northeast. rust detected early in the season that
officially started in september is not a particularly

large risk for production as the fungus can be controlled, but it
should alert farmers, godoy

said. brazil is forecast to produce a record 2015/16 soy crop that
could surpass 100 million

tonnes. el nio, the first to influence brazil’s grain harvest since
the 2009/10 crop year, will

likely strengthen before the end of the year and become one of the
strongest on record, the

u.n. weather agency said this month. “there is a very high tendency
for rust all season,” said agrometeorologist marco antonio dos

santos, of somar meteorologists. he said rains could continue into the
harvest period, which

runs from january to april. according to godoy, el nio caused warmer
than usual temperatures in southern brazil, meaning

some of the previous crops soy lingered in fields in july and august –
a period when fields

should be cleared to prevent crop pests. soybeans are brazil’s main
cash crop and the south american country is the world’s top

exporter of the oilseed. in recent years fungus, once a huge threat to
brazil’s emergence as

an agricultural powerhouse, has ceased to affect output as farmers
learned to use fungicides

effectively. in a year with high costs of inputted goods like
pesticides and fertilizers due to a strong

dollar, crop margins are expected to be tight and farmers may be
tempted to apply less or opt

for cheaper fungicides, said mario lucio melo, technical coordinator
of the coopavel

cooperative in western parana state. “this can’t happen – farmers must
use the best products available,” he said.

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但如果生产成本过高,诸如农药、化肥等农资价格上涨,可能导致种植业的收入水平受到挤压,农户则可能少用或者采用廉价的杀虫剂来对抗病虫害的威胁,显然,采用这样的措施显然对控制大豆生产不佳。

植物病理学家claudiagodoy则表示,厄尔尼诺现象还导致了巴西南部地区气温水平升高,以至于7、8月份耕地就有一些早先的植被和作物种子发芽,同时也催生了害虫的发生发展。

数据统计显示,受厄尔尼诺现象影响,巴西南部雨患频繁,催生了病虫害的发生发作,目前,已在巴西南部大豆产区发现的亚洲大豆锈病事件,数量为上一年的两倍左右。